How Do You Know?

Understanding The Gap Between What We Think We Know and What We Actually Know

Question: Do you understand how a toilet works?

If I told you to explain in precise detail how the flushing mechanism works to an 8-year-old, step-by-step, would you still confidently say yes? The confidence you felt when you first read the question, where did it go?

I’ll be the first to admit that debating with me can be a jarring experience. Quite simply because I’ll ask you a very simple question: “How do you know?” Or it could be “How does it work?” Or I’ll just pull out my phone and do a quick search about the claims you’re making.

It’s not because I think people are intentionally dishonest; I just believe that we don’t question information we’re presented with enough. I also believe familiarity can give a false illusion of knowledge and understanding.

Go on then, explain to me in detail how a bicycle works and stays upright.

You know it actually has a name: Illusion of Explanatory Depth. We think we understand things far more deeply than we actually do.

The first thing I noticed when I committed to genuinely seeking wisdom was just how little I actually knew. Across every realm. From barber shop debates to tempers flaring at family dinners, so many of us have deep convictions about topics we know next to nothing about. Myself included.

Now throw the internet and social media into the mix. Every day, millions of people share confident assertions about economics, health, science, politics, sports - everything. Confidently and without challenge.

They speak with the authority of experts, accumulating likes, followers and trust in the process. I submit to you that when pressed to explain the mechanism behind their claims, the argument falls apart. I reckon there’s a bit of a glitch in how we process credibility: a large following somehow equates to expertise.

The very fabric of social media rewards confidence over accuracy and deep conviction over nuance. Actually, scratch that, not just social media, it’s everywhere. Once a person sounds certain, they’re more likely to be believed and engaged with than the person who is right but speaks carefully.

Even if they’re spewing complete nonsense.

The result? We aren’t just getting misinformed, we’re getting misled. It may not be intentional but the impact doesn’t care about intention. It’s interesting because people are confidently sharing half-baked ideas they absorbed from someone else…who absorbed them from someone else.

We also have to question our roles in this. TikTok has quietly become a source of truth for some. We’re becoming consumers of shallow, half-formed ideas dressed up as insight that, because of high engagement, we accept as facts and present them in real life.

Our worldviews aren’t being shaped by truth. They’re being shaped by whoever sounds confident, like they know what they’re talking about. We’re outsourcing our thinking to people who haven’t got a clue.

It’s why Boris Johnson could claim that leaving the EU would free up £350 million a week for the NHS. Confidence, repetition and an audience who never asked him to explain how it would work.

But before we look at other people, we have to look in the mirror first. If we’re being honest, I’m sure we have areas we speak a little too confidently on but think a little too shallowly. That thing you feel so strongly about, can you explain it in depth? Can you explain it to an 8-year-old?

Many of us aren’t used to interrogating our own thinking and ironically, we’re the easiest to misinform. When you’re used to questioning your beliefs, values and thoughts, you develop a natural resistance that prevents you from adopting falsehood as truth.

Be careful though. We don’t want to be THAT person who is contrarian for the sake of being contrarian. Or the person carrying that air of intellectual superiority that makes you insufferable. Everyday is an opportunity to learn so go forward with an open mind.

Despite all of this though, the toilet works regardless of whether you understand it or not. The bicycle stays upright through gyroscopic force and caster effect by the way. Bet you thought it was something to do with momentum.

Most people didn’t know that and most of us never thought to ask. Start questioning the things you believe, the information you consume and holding people accountable when they make bold claims.

As always, make a decision that future you will be grateful for.

Have a great week!

CT